Market Recap & Analysis Using ICT Concepts Nasdaq Week 31 March 2025

 

1. Nasdaq Movement: The Nasdaq might go up to 19,794, within a 458-point range.

2. Sell Zone: Selling from that level could be ideal because there is a daily breaker in that area.

3. New Month & Monday Outlook: With the new month opening, Monday will likely see a downward move or at least a small retracement.

4. Daily Fair Value Gap (FVG): There is a daily FVG between 18,829 and 19,162, which might get filled before the market moves up. Watch for this during the New York session tomorrow.

5. Weekly Bearish Trend: The market is bearish for the week and is expected to drop to 18,354 by Friday.

 

Detailed breakdown of  analysis using ICT (Inner Circle Trader) Concepts:

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Market Recap & Analysis Using ICT Concepts

1. Monday, February 17, 2025 – Liquidity Grab & Weekly Candle Formation

• The market wicked to the upside, reaching 22,232, which indicates that it took out weekly liquidity before reversing.

• After grabbing liquidity, it closed as a red candle at 20,601.7, signaling a bearish rejection.

• The liquidity taken:

  • Open price: 21,401.2

  • Wick high: 22,138

  • Close price: 22,125 (before selling pressure pushed it down).

• The market then continued bearish, closing three to four consecutive red candles, showing strong downside momentum.

• Key ICT Concepts in Play:

  • Liquidity grab: The move to 22,232 took out buy-side liquidity before reversing.

  • Order block rejection: The price wicked above a previous level but failed to hold.

2. Weekly CISD Confirmation at 20,710

• CISD (Change in State of Delivery) confirmed a bearish structure at 20,710, meaning that sellers had control.

• This level acted as a breaker for further downside moves.

• ICT Concept Used:

  • CISD signals a shift in market structure from bullish to bearish.

3. Monday, February 17 – Indecision Candle & Weekly Retrace

• The week retracted slightly, forming wicks on both sides but closing in between, signaling an indecision candle (likely a doji or small-bodied candle).

• This suggests a temporary pause before the next move.

• ICT Concept in Play:

  • Indecision candles often indicate consolidation before the next big move.

4. Monday, March 24, 2025 – Weekly Retrace to FVG

• The new weekly candle on March 24 started with a retracement to the upside, reaching a weekly Fair Value Gap (FVG).

• FVG levels:

  • 20,414.2 – 20,121.8

  • Price filled the imbalance up to 20,334 before reversing.

• Final weekly close: 19,201.2 → a strong bearish close, confirming continued downside.

• ICT Concepts Used:

  • FVG (Fair Value Gap): The market fills the inefficiency before resuming trend.

  • Bearish Order Block Rejection: The FVG area acted as resistance.

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5. Monday, March 31, 2025 – Opening Analysis & Prediction Using ICT Concepts

For March 31 opening, we analyze the key ICT factors:

📌 Key Observations for March 31 Opening:

1. Higher Timeframe Bias → Bearish Weekly Structure

   • The previous three to four weekly candles have closed red.

   • March 24 candle filled FVG and then closed lower → confirms bearish continuation.

   • Weekly CISD was confirmed at 20,710, reinforcing the downtrend.

2. Potential Liquidity Grab Before Drop

   • The market could wick up first to take buy-side liquidity before selling off.

   • Watch for a retest of the weekly order block or an FVG before selling pressure resumes.

   • Possible retrace levels: 20,710 (CISD level) or 20,334 (previous FVG fill).

3. Downside Targets Based on ICT Concepts

   • If the market remains bearish, we look for sell-side liquidity targets:

     • Next downside liquidity pool: 18,800 – 18,600 zone

     • Potential FVG to fill below: 18,354 (weekly key level)

   • If a strong bearish move occurs, price may aim for 17,900 – 18,000 as a long-term target.

4. Possible Scenarios for Monday, March 31 Opening

   • Scenario 1 (Bearish Bias – Likely Case):

     • Price wicks up slightly (grabbing liquidity) before continuing lower.

     • Levels to watch: 20,334 (FVG resistance) and 20,710 (CISD confirmation).

     • Target: 18,800 – 18,600 downside liquidity zone.

   • Scenario 2 (Short-Term Retrace Before Drop):

     • Price moves up to test a bearish order block or imbalance before selling off.

     • Possible retrace into 20,414.2 – 20,121.8 (previous FVG) before rejection.

   • Scenario 3 (Invalidation of Bearish Bias):

     • If price breaks above 21,000+ and holds, the structure may shift bullish.

     • Need confirmation of higher highs before shifting bias.

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📌 Conclusion – ICT Outlook for March 31, 2025

• Overall bias remains bearish, given previous weekly closures and confirmed CISD.

• Expect possible short-term upside wicks to grab liquidity before a continued sell-off.

• Downside target: 18,800 – 18,600 zone, with deeper levels at 18,354 and possibly 17,900.

• Key levels to watch:

  • Upside resistance: 20,334 (FVG), 20,710 (CISD level).

  • Downside target: 18,800, 18,354.

Retraces up to 360 Points upside and then went down 

Weekly Retracement: A retrace to the upside is expected, but each candle is likely to close lower.

Bearish Weekly Candles: Since the weekly candles have been bearish, I expect the same pattern to continue in April.