NAS100 Short Trade Analysis
April 26, 2025 | ICT Concepts | 4H & 1M Charts
Why Shorting This Trade Was Justified
4H Chart Analysis
Key Bearish Signals:
- Price tapped 19,468.4 (4H high) but failed to close above → Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL) activation
- Aligned with 19,458.4 daily high (liquidity pool)
- Bearish FVG at 19,388.1–19,400
- Lower high formed → Potential Market Structure Shift (MSS)
1M Chart Confirmation
Entry Triggers:
- Spike to 19,449.9 with rejection:
- Pin bar (01:15 PM)
- Bearish engulfing (01:30 PM)
- Break below 19,440 (micro structure)
- Retest of FVG at 19,388.1–19,400 (02:00 PM)
Short Trade Execution Plan
High Probability| Parameter | Details |
|---|---|
| Entry Zone | 19,440–19,450 (After 1M rejection + 4H SSL) |
| Stop Loss (SL) | 19,470 (Above 4H high + buffer) |
| Take Profit (TP) |
TP1: 19,388 (FVG close) → +50 pips TP2: 19,300 (4H EL) → +140 pips |
| Risk-Reward (RR) | 1:3 (SL: 30 pips, TP1: 50 pips, TP2: 140 pips) |
ICT Confluences That Made This Trade Valid
- Multi-Timeframe Alignment: 4H SSL + 1M price rejection
- Optimal Trade Entry (OTE): Shorting the retest of liquidity
- Liquidity Run: Stops above 19,468.4 likely swept first
Why You Should Have Taken This Trade
✅ Pros
- Clear SSL at daily/4H highs
- 1M showed perfect rejection candles
- FVG target provided logical TP
❌ Common Mistakes
- Fear of bullish monthly trend
- Waiting for "perfect" entry
- Ignoring lower timeframe confirmation
Backtest Result
- Price dropped to 19,388.1 → TP1 hit (+50 pips)
- Continued to 19,300 → TP2 hit (+140 pips)
Key ICT Lesson
"Trade what you see, not what you think. Liquidity grabs at highs/lows + FVGs + MSS shifts = High-probability setups."
This trade exemplified classic ICT concepts in action. The confluences between timeframes made it a high-probability short despite the larger bullish trend.