NASDAQ 100 (NQ) Analysis - ICT Perspective
When the NASDAQ 100 (NQ) futures are just a few points away from the monthly open, ICT (Inner Circle Trader) would analyze this scenario through the lens of his core concepts, particularly focusing on market structure, liquidity, and time-based price action.
ICT's Perspective on Price Near Monthly Open
Monthly Open as a Magnet
ICT emphasizes that the monthly open (19,713.5 in this case) acts as a key reference level. Price tends to revisit this level during the month to "balance" or "test" it before deciding the next direction.
If price is hovering near the monthly open, it suggests a potential inflection point where traders (especially institutional players) may reassess value.
Liquidity and Stop Hunts
The proximity to the monthly open increases the likelihood of a liquidity run—price may briefly sweep lows (or highs) near this level to trigger stops before reversing.
In the chart, the NDOG LOW (19,923.1) and NDOG HIGH (19,951.2) are recent liquidity points. A drop toward the monthly open could target stops below these levels before reversing.
Double Wicks as Rejection Signals
The mention of "41 double wicks" at 19,675.0 suggests repeated price rejection at that level (a sign of accumulation/distribution). If price approaches this zone again, ICT would watch for:
- Bullish reversal candles (e.g., hammers, engulfing patterns).
- Divergence on lower timeframes (e.g., RSI or MACD).
Reversal Analysis Steps (ICT Framework)
Bullish Reversal Scenario
Key Levels:
- Support: Monthly open (19,713.5), double wicks (19,675.0)
Entry Signal:
Price holds above monthly open with a higher low and shows bullish reversal patterns (hammer, engulfing) with confirmation from lower timeframe RSI/MACD divergence.
Targets: NDOG LOW (19,923.1), NDOG HIGH (19,951.2)
Stop Loss: Below recent swing low (19,658.3)
Bearish Continuation Scenario
Key Levels:
- Resistance: NDOG LOW (19,923.1), NDOG HIGH (19,951.2)
Entry Signal:
Price rejects at resistance levels with bearish reversal patterns (shooting star, bearish engulfing) and breaks below monthly open (19,713.5) with momentum.
Targets: 19,658.3 (recent low), 19,500.0 psychological level
Stop Loss: Above NDOG HIGH (19,951.2)
Time-Based Confirmation
ICT aligns reversals with New York Session (8 AM–12 PM EST) or London Close (11 AM EST). The chart shows activity at 03:00 AM, 06:00 AM, and 09:00 AM—watch for reversals around these times.
Summary
ICT would wait for price to test the monthly open (19,713.5), look for a liquidity sweep below it, and then watch for bullish reversal patterns to enter long. The 19,658.3–19,675.0 zone would be critical for a potential bounce. Conversely, a break below 19,658.3 could signal further downside.