When to Avoid the London Session: ICT’s Rule-Based Guide
Learn the exact conditions when trading London Session becomes low-probability—and how to preserve capital.
Key Takeaway
The London session (2 AM–11 AM EST) offers high liquidity, but certain market conditions make it prone to false breakouts and traps. This lesson teaches you to identify those scenarios using clear rules—so you only trade when odds are in your favor.
Key Concepts & Terms
- • Market Makers: Banks/Central Bank dealers manipulating price to collect liquidity.
- • Liquidity Runs: Price aggressively targeting stop clusters (e.g., above highs/below lows).
- • False Setups: Patterns that fail due to poor session conditions (e.g., overlapping news).
- • Average Daily Range (ADR): The typical price movement over 5 days. Exceeding 2x ADR signals exhaustion.
7 Reasons to Avoid the London Session
1. After a Large Range Day
Rule: If the previous day’s range exceeded 2x its 5-day ADR, avoid London. Price will likely consolidate or chop.
2. Consecutive Daily Closes
Avoid longs after 3+ consecutive up closes (retracement likely).
Avoid shorts after 3+ consecutive down closes (bounce likely).
London Session Checklist
Ask these before trading London:
- ✅ Did the previous day exceed 2x its 5-day ADR?
- ✅ Are there 3+ consecutive up/down daily closes?
- ✅ Is the Central Bank Dealers Range (8 PM–12 AM EST) tight (<50 pips)?
- ✅ Is the Asian Range (12 AM–2 AM EST) consolidating (<40 pips)?
If "YES" to any → Skip London.
London Session Checklist: The "Why" Behind Each Rule
These filters help you avoid low-probability London sessions. They’re based on how market makers and institutional liquidity operate. Here’s why each rule matters:
1 Did the previous day exceed 2x its 5-day ADR?
Why? A range twice the average means exhaustion. Market makers likely took profits, leaving choppy/consolidating price action the next day.
How to check: Calculate the 5-day ADR (average daily range), then compare it to yesterday’s range. Example: If ADR is 70 pips and yesterday moved 150 pips → Avoid London.
2 Are there 3+ consecutive up/down daily closes?
Why? After 3 straight moves, price often retraces or pauses. Banks take profits, triggering reversions.
How to check: Look at the daily chart’s closing candles. Example: 3 green candles → Avoid longs in London (expect pullback).
3 Is the Central Bank Dealers Range (8 PM–12 AM EST) tight (<50 pips)?
Why? Dealers consolidate to accumulate orders. A tight range = liquidity building for a breakout.
How to check: Measure the range between 8 PM–12 AM EST on a 15-minute chart. Example: Range of 65 pips → Too wide, skip London.
4 Is the Asian Range (12 AM–2 AM EST) consolidating (<40 pips)?
Why? Asian session sets the stage for London. A quiet range = higher chance of a clean breakout.
How to check: Measure the range between midnight–2 AM EST. Example: Range of 25 pips → Good for London. If trending → Avoid.
Remember:
These rules align with how banks manipulate price. If conditions aren’t met, liquidity is scattered, and your edge disappears. Missing a bad trade is a win.
Common Mistakes to Avoid
- Overriding rules: "But it looks bullish!" → Stick to the checklist.
- FOMO on news: Even if right, spreads/whipsaw hurt risk-reward.
- Trading every day: Forcing trades in sloppy conditions erases profits.
Final Tips for Students
Trading is about probabilities, not possibilities. The London session is powerful—but only when the "recipe" aligns. Use this framework to:
- Preserve capital by avoiding low-probability days.
- Trade like a sniper: Wait for clear PD Array respect + tight ranges.
- Backtest these rules on historical data to build confidence.
Remember:
The market isn’t going anywhere. Missing a bad trade is a win.