ICT Mentorship Month 8 - Video 4: Projecting Daily Highs and Lows Paid Mentorship by CKTradeZone

Introduction

This lesson focuses on projecting daily highs and lows using the Central Bank dealers range, standard deviations, and PD Array Matrix. ICT explains how to measure protractionary moves in London and New York sessions, emphasizing precision in identifying key reversal points.

"This is one of those things you just really, really want to keep to yourself. It's not common knowledge. It's mind-boggling how precise you can get."

Key Concepts Covered

1. Central Bank Dealers Range (CBDR)
   • Measured between 2 PM and 8 PM New York time.
   • Ideal range: 20-30 pips (must be less than 40 pips).
   • If CBDR exceeds 40 pips, avoid using it for projections.
2. Standard Deviations in Protractionary Moves
   • Most sell days move up to 3 standard deviations from CBDR.
   • Most buy days move down to 3 standard deviations from CBDR.
   • Typically, price stays within 1-2 standard deviations (rarely beyond 3).
3. Projecting Daily Highs/Lows
   • Use the CBDR protractionary range (distance price moves away from CBDR).
   • Multiply this range to project where price may reverse.
4. Time & Price Alignment
   • London Kill Zone (8 AM - 12 PM NY time) and New York session reversals.
   • Look for overlaps between PD Arrays, fair value gaps, and order blocks.

Step-by-Step Process

Step 1: Identify the Central Bank Dealers Range

• Measure the wick-to-wick or body-to-body range between 2 PM - 8 PM NY time.
• Prefer body ranges (open/close highs-lows) but confirm with wicks.
• Discard days where CBDR > 40 pips (too extended for reliable projections).

Step 2: Determine Standard Deviations for Protraction

• If price moves up (sell day), measure how many standard deviations it travels from CBDR high.
• If price moves down (buy day), measure how many standard deviations it travels from CBDR low.
• Example:
  • If price moves 2 standard deviations up in London, project 2 ranges down for the low.

Step 3: Project the Daily High/Low

• Take the total range of the standard deviation move (e.g., 2 SDs = X pips).
• For Sell Days:
  • Project the same range down from the CBDR low.
  • Example: If CBDR is 30 pips, and price moves 2 SDs up (60 pips), project 60 pips down from CBDR low.
• For Buy Days:
  • Project the same range up from the CBDR high.

Step 4: Align with PD Arrays & Time Windows

• Check if projected levels align with:
  • PD Arrays (Premium/Discount)
  • Fair Value Gaps
  • Order Blocks
• Use London Close (12 PM NY) or New York Session Reversals for timing.

Step 5: Confirm with Price Action

• If price reaches the projected level and aligns with a PD Array or order block, expect a reversal.
• Take partial profits early if price shows hesitation (e.g., near fair value gaps).

Chart/Trade Examples

Example 1: Sell Day Precision

• CBDR: 30 pips (accepted range).
• Price moves 2 standard deviations up in London (60 pips total protraction).
• Projection: Measure 60 pips down from CBDR low.
• Result: Price hits the exact projected low at 124.76 (2 SDs down).

"It stops right at two standard deviations of the CBDR—boom, hits it. Yes, it wicks down a little more, but not by much."

Example 2: Buy Day with Fair Value Gap

• CBDR: 25 pips.
• Price moves 1 standard deviation down in London (25 pips).
• Projection: Measure 25 pips up from CBDR high.
• Result: Price reaches projected high but extends slightly to close a fair value gap before reversing.

"We called 124.41, was off by one pip. Sometimes you'll be right to the pip, sometimes just short—nothing wrong with leaving some on the table."

Example 3: Extended CBDR (Invalid Setup)

• CBDR: 58 pips (too large).
• Action: Ignore projections for the day.
• Instead, wait for New York session reversal into a bullish order block.

Notes and Quotes

Critical Rules

• CBDR must be < 40 pips (20-30 ideal).
• Avoid overusing this method—only apply when CBDR, PD Arrays, and time align.
• "You don't need to know the exact pip beforehand—just recognize it after the move starts."

Final Reminder

• "This isn't Elliott Wave or supply/demand—it's intermarket delivery science."
• "We can get even more precise, but you must master these steps first."

ICT Mentorship: Projecting Daily Highs & Lows

Month 8 • Video 4 Breakdown

Core Idea

Use the Central Bank Dealers Range (CBDR) and standard deviations to project daily highs/lows, combined with PD Arrays for context.

🛠️ Key Tools

CBDR (2PM-8PM NY) Standard Deviations PD Arrays Fair Value Gaps

📈 Projecting Highs/Lows: Step-by-Step

1

Mark the CBDR

Measure wick-to-wick and body range between 2PM-8PM NY time (ideal: 20-30 pips).

2

Calculate Deviations

For sell days: Project 1-3 deviations above CBDR high. For buy days: 1-3 deviations below CBDR low.

3

Confirm with PD Arrays

Ensure projected level aligns with premium (sell) or discount (buy) zones.

💡 Pro Tip

Price often reverses at London Close (12PM NY) when deviations align with Kill Zones. Watch for wicks/pin bars at these levels!

✅ Daily Trading Checklist

• Mark CBDR (2PM-8PM NY range)
• Check PD Array (premium/discount?)
• Calculate 1-3 deviations from CBDR
• Watch London Close (12PM NY) for reversals
• Enter only with confirmation (rejection candles, FVG fills)
• SL beyond last deviation, TP at CBDR midpoint

Next Lesson: Continuation of high-probability setups using time and price theory.

"Good luck and good trading." – ICT