Nasdaq (US 100 Cash CFD) Analysis Using ICT 2022 Model Timeframe: 15m, 1h, 4h, Daily Date: April 2, 2025

 

Nasdaq (US 100 Cash CFD) Analysis Using ICT 2022 Model

Timeframe: 15m, 1h, 4h, Daily
Date: April 2, 2025

1. Market Structure & Bias

Higher Timeframe (Daily & 4H) – Bearish

• Daily Chart:
  • Price closed at 19,190.8, down -225.4 (-1.16%).
  • Lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL) suggest a downtrend.
  • Recent swing high at 19,500.0 (resistance) and swing low at 18,140.2 (support).
  • Judas Swing Likely: A fake breakout above 19,500.0 before a drop.
• 4H Chart:
  • Price rejected 19,343.0 (high) and fell to 19,185.3, confirming bearish momentum.
  • Liquidity Grab: The high at 19,343.0 could be a liquidity sweep before a drop.

1H & 15m – Short-Term Bearish

• 1H Chart: Lower highs forming, with resistance at 19,250.5.
• 15m Chart: Price struggling below 19,200.0, indicating weakness.

Conclusion: Primary Bias = Bearish (Sell Rallies).

2. Judas Swing & Liquidity Pools

• Judas Swing Expected:
  • A fake breakout above 19,300-19,500 (liquidity grab) before a reversal down.
  • If price rallies into 19,300-19,500, expect a sell-off towards 18,800-18,500.
• Liquidity Levels:
  • Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL): Above 19,300-19,500 (stop hunts).
  • Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL): Below 18,800-18,500 (where shorts may cover).

3. Trading Plan for Today (April 2, 2025)

Trade Direction: SELL (Preferably After a Rally)

• Ideal Entry:
  • Wait for a pullback to 19,300-19,500 (Judas swing zone).
  • Look for bearish rejection (wick, order block break) to short.
• Targets:
  • First TP: 19,000 (previous low).
  • Second TP: 18,800-18,500 (daily support).
• Stop Loss: Above 19,500 (liquidity zone).

Alternative Scenario (If No Rally):

• If price breaks 19,000 without a rally, look for continuation shorts with TP 18,800.

4. Why Not Buy?

• No Strong Bullish Structure:
  • Price is making lower highs on all timeframes.
  • Daily candle closed bearish.
  • Liquidity is above, not below (market needs to trap buyers before dropping).

Final Verdict

✅ Trade Today: SELL (After Rally into 19,300-19,500)
❌ Avoid Buying – Bearish Momentum Dominates
📉 Judas Swing Expected: Fake Breakout Above 19,500 Before Drop

Key Levels:
- Resistance: 19,300-19,500 (Sell Zone)
- Support: 19,000 → 18,800 → 18,500 (Targets)

Trade Safely! 🚀

Nasdaq (US 100) Judas Swing Trading Plan

ICT 2022 Model | New York Session Focus | April 2, 2025

1. Optimal Entry Timing

Key Window: 10:00 AM - 12:00 PM EST

• Peak NY session liquidity when Judas swings frequently occur
• Watch for rally into 19,300-19,500 during this period
• London traders exiting positions often create reversal opportunities

2. Entry Timeframe & Trigger

Primary Chart: 15-Minute

For precision entries using ICT concepts:

Confirmation Tools:

1. FVG (Fair Value Gap):
   • Look for bearish FVG after rejection at 19,300-19,500
   • Example: Price spikes to 19,450 then drops sharply, leaving FVG below
2. MSS (Market Structure Shift):
   • Wait for lower high break after Judas swing (e.g., drop below 19,250)
3. CIS (Change of Institutional Structure):
   • Break of 15m swing low (e.g., 19,180) confirms bearish continuation

3. Trading the Judas Swing (Step-by-Step)

Pre-Setup:

• Mark liquidity pools at 19,300-19,500 (above) and 19,000 (below)
• Set price alerts at key levels

Execution:

1. Short Entry: After price wicks into 19,450 with rejection (pinbar, FVG close below)
2. Stop Loss: 10-15 pips above Judas swing high (19,515)
3. Targets:
   • TP1: 19,100 (first liquidity pool)
   • TP2: 18,800 (daily support)

Confirmation:

• Volume spike on rejection
• RSI divergence on 15m chart
• Order flow showing aggressive sellers

4. Why This Strategy Works

• Judas Swing Logic: Market lures buyers above 19,300, traps them, then reverses
• ICT Alignment: FVG/MSS entries align with institutional sell-side liquidity grabs
• New York Session: High participation increases probability of planned moves

5. Backup Plan (If No Clear Judas Swing)

• Alternative Entry: Wait for 15m bearish MSS below 19,200 with IFVG fill
• Conservative Approach: Trade the retest of 19,300 if price rejects again
• No Trade: If price holds above 19,500, wait for clearer structure

Trade Summary

Component	Details
Best Time	10:00 AM - 12:00 PM EST (NY Session Liquidity Peak)
Entry Chart	15-minute (FVG/MSS/CIS confirmation)
Trigger	Wicked rejection at 19,300-19,500 + FVG close below
Stop Loss	19,515 (Above Judas high)
Targets	19,100 → 18,800
Risk/Reward	1:3+ (Example: 50-pip SL, 150-300 pip TP)

✓ Trade Direction: SELL after Judas swing confirmation
✗ Avoid buying - Bearish momentum dominates

"The Judas swing is a liquidity trap—trade the failure of the breakout, not the breakout itself." — ICT 2022

Pro Tip:

Use a limit order at the FVG edge (e.g., 19,400) to avoid chasing price. Monitor order flow for confirmation.